Google’s new Android Software Needs an Artistic Media Soul to Succeed in Tablets
[updated October 19 with the latest Q3 Apple results and the official name of the new Nexus]
A new version of Android will be available in November, initally on the Samsung Galaxy Nexus smartphone. Much of the analysis of this Ice Cream Sandwich version of Android is focused on the implications of it running on both smartphones and tablets, where older versions of Android ran on one or the other (1), as well as shiny new gimmicks such as face recognition to unlock a handset.
This unification of smartphones and tablets is a red herring. Other things matter much more for Android.
Android tablets are failing in the market, while Google’s smartphones sell in enormous numbers. This is a major issue for Google.
In tablets, Google’s own numbers show the extent to which Android is struggling. There are approximately 3.4m Android tablets running the official version of Android intended for tablets (2). This is small compared with the tablet market leader from Apple. Over 39.9m iPads were shipped up to the end of September this year. In the third quarter of 2011 alone, Apple shipped over 11m iPads, almost three times that of all official Android tablets to date.
Android smartphones are a massive success. Given the above Android tablet figures, the vast majority of the 550,000 Android devices activated each day must be smartphones. Google has already caught Apple in smartphone adoption. There are 190m Android devices in use compared with 250m Apple iOS devices. But in smartphones the adoption numbers show that Android is already ahead: Apple has shipped a total of 146m iPhones to date (end September 2011) — some of those units are over three years old and will no longer be in use — while there are approximately 180m Android smartphones (3).
Google is succeeding with smartphones, but not tablets, as a solid media strategy isn’t essential for success in the smartphone market.
Why?
Mobile Metadata Monday: Apple latest; Nielsen & Comscore Smartphones; JD Power Phone Satisfaction
Today’s round-up of recent wireless, smartphone, tablet, and other mobile data.
There’s a summary of the data at the top with more figures, analysis and links to all of the sources included further down after the break.
1. comScore: August 2011 U.S. Mobile Subscriber Market Share
In one of its key countries, the US, RIM is really struggling. RIM sees a decline of 1% in share of the mobile handset market and a dramatic 5% fall in share of smartphone OS platforms in just a three month period. But these figures pre-date the introduction of RIM’s completely new portfolio of low end Curves and higher end Bold’s and Torch’s all running BlackBerry OS 7.
Despite widespread sentiment that Apple is losing out to Android in the US, the company’s share of the total US mobile market edged up by 0.7% between May and August. This reflects continued strength for the iPhone 4 although the handset design is a year old.
2. Apple: Latest iOS, iPhone and other Apple statistics from the “Let’s Talk iPhone” event
Apple’s own figures from the iPhone 4S launch re-enforce how well it was doing on the eve of Steve Job’s death. Some of the many metrics (many stats further down after the break):
- 250m iOS devices sold, including iPads, iPhones and iPod Touch models.
- 18m total app downloads cumulatively.
- 500,000 iOS apps in the store, of which 140,000 are for the iPad.
- 67m Game Center users.
- >16bn songs sold by the iTunes music store.
- $3bn paid out by App to app developers to date
3. Nielsen: In U.S. Market, New Smartphone Buyers Increasingly Embracing Android
Data on new smartphone buyers shows that Android is growing dramatically and now represents 56% of recent smartphone acquirers. However, Apple is maintaining its smartphone market share (28%) when comparing recent smartphone acquirers and all smartphone subscribers. Result: More bad news for RIM and Microsoft Windows Phone, it’s these other smartphone platforms that are being squeezed by the rise of Android, not Apple.
4. J.D. Power: The Right Blend of Design and Technology is Critical to Creating an Exceptional User Experience with Smartphones and Traditional Mobile Devices
Customer satisfaction is greatest for thin and light devices, even among smartphone users. Current feature phone owners demonstrate the same trend as smartphone owners for portable devices but have a lower tolerance for weight with their satisfaction levels dropping off when devices weigh over 4 ounces compared with a threshold of 5 ounces for smartphone owners.
My take: This explains partly the success of the iPhone 4. Apple’s handset is a particularly thin and light smartphone that has wide appeal to normal mobile customers, not just savvy users. J.D. Power data picks out the iPhone as the highest rated phone for satisfaction.
5. Nielsen: 40 Percent of U.S. Mobile Users Own Smartphones; 40 Percent are Android
Apple and Android are neck and neck in appeal for those adults that intend to buy a smartphone in the next year: Both appeal to 30% of prospective buyers. But among an “Innovators” group of early adopters 40% intend to buy an Android smartphone compared with 32% for iOS. My take: This data demonstrates that the iPhone has broader appeal across mainstream users than Android.
iPhone 4S Disappointment Shows Appearances Matter, A Lot
The iPhone 4S is a completely different phone from its predecessor. Really. Screen and exterior industrial design aside, there’s almost nothing that’s the same as the older iPhone 4. Mobile industry and media coverage sentiment hasn’t matched that analysis.
Nevertheless, the iPhone 4S has many improvements, including:
- A new chipset, baseband and radio that is dual mode. Previously, Apple used Intel-owned Infineon for earlier iPhone models. Now they are almost certainly using Qualcomm as they’re the leaders in dual mode CDMA/GMS (3GPP3 / 3GPP) handset technology. There’s some great analysis of quite the enormity of this shift to dual mode in this piece by Dean Bubley. In addition to his points, Apple also gains other benefits from now making a single phone that they are able to sell anywhere, rather than two separate phones for CDMA and GSM/3GPP: they boost their economies of scale still further with component purchasing, driving down costs. Also with only one SKU to manage in global manufacturing and distribution Apple has greater flexibility to re-direct iPhone 4S stock to where it’s most needed whatever network technology an operator uses.
Ironically, given the reaction to the 4S, the new chipset and baseband may make the 4S the first iPhone that is actually a great phone for making phone calls. Assuming Apple has engineered the new platform right. - A re-designed still and video camera. Not only does the 4S have 8 megapixels rather than the 5 of its predecessor it also has altered optics and a different sensor. Result: better low light performance, one of the big weaknesses of all mobile phone cameras. The 4S also records video in 1080P quality at 30 frames per second, up from 720P in 2010′s iPhone 4.
- More storage. This is the first time that an iPhone has shipped with a 64Gb option. The last time Apple raised the storage available on a iPhone was in 2009 when the iPhone 3GS launched.
- Faster processor and much faster graphics. The iPhone is now dual core like so many recent high end Android smartphones (e.g. Motorola Atrix, LG Optimus 2x, Samsung Galaxy S II, HTC Sensation). This should deliver snappier performance throughout and better games.
- New on-board software with improvements throughout. The most notable changes in iOS5 are the central notifications list, a reminders app, the week view in the Calendar, system-wide twitter integration and iCloud support. Almost all of these features are available to current iPhone 4 and 3GS owners but they’re still new. Apple reduced excitement around all of these major changes by pre-announcing iOS5 and iCloud features in June. As far as the media and industry, they’re four months old.
- Context-based intelligent voice assistant. The ‘Siri’ software is widely seen as an extension of Apple’s voice technology implementation. The background to Siri is more interesting. Originally it was a defence department project that focused on artificial intelligence learning. The clever part of Siri isn’t voice recognition, which Apple have almost certainly licensed (likely from Nuance). Instead, Siri’s differentiation from the mass of voice control services on Android and Windows Phone is from its contextual understanding of what a user means when they ask something, and to deliver improved results over time learning about context from a user’s past questions. The demos look impressive. Only real world usage over a prolonged period will indicate how well Siri delivers.
So why the widely expressed disappointment by the mobile industry, media, and savvy mobile enthusiasts?
iPhone 4S Is a Worldphone That’s Not, as Apple Positions to Counter Android
Apple’s product announcements today are a tale of two iPhones: the iPhone 4States and the Immortal 3GS.
Today at Apple’s annual event, new CEO Tim Cook unveiled evolved iPods, a new dual core iPhone 4S, and the voice-controlled virtual assistant based on Apple’s acquisition of Siri. He also recapped on iOS5 and iCloud which were announced back in June. Although Apple sell two thirds of their iPhones outside the US, I fear that the most innovative new parts of the iPhone 4S product design will appeal most to a US audience. Apple will still do well globally, but it could do even better with some tweaked product thinking.
Much more significantly, Apple now is moving to a three iPhone model portfolio: Apple will continue to sell both last years’ iPhone 4 and the previous years’ iPhone 3GS at cheaper price points. This will dramatically boost Apple’s phone sales volumes and enable Apple to compete head on with more Android smartphones.
The Immortal iPhone 3GS
The decision to keep on the 3GS as well as the old iPhone 4 is a massive move for Apple. It will extend the iPhone competitive threat to rivals into the mid tier of the mobile market. Apple’s competitors have often sidestepped the full force of the iPhone threat by positioning their models as cheaper phones. That strategy is now being squeezed and may become untenable in the US market.
Apple is positioning to counter Android with the new pricing and continued use of the iPhone 3GS.
Apple is motivated by great margins and not premium end user prices. If Apple can deliver keen prices to grab a market without sacrificing margins they will. The growth of the iPod product portfolio over the years as Apple’s economies of scales have enabled them to maintain margins yet lower prices demonstrates Apple’s aspirations: the new 2011 iPod Nano is the cheapest Nano Apple has ever launched. As the iPhone 3GS is so old, component prices will have fallen and Apple will have steadily improved manufacturing to minimize defects.
Those that are disappointed by the iPhone 4S’s identical appearance to its predecessor forget the success that its forerunner model enjoyed and in fact still enjoys. Back in 2009 there were similar comments to those being made today: Then, the new iPhone 3GS looked just the same as the older iPhone 3G. Those people were wrong then and so are they now:
“Let’s Talk iPhone” – Where to follow the Apple iPhone event live online
The sites below will be providing live coverage of Apple’s 2011 iPhone event where new iPhones will be unveiled, either the iPhone 4S and/or iPhone5.
I’ll be analyzing the news live on twitter, follow me here @ianfogg42 or read now these just published pieces of Apple analysis: On a core part of iOS5, Apple’s iCloud Enables A Post-PC World That Will Boost iPad & iPhone Sales; and on how to compete with Apple, Apple’s Metrics Demonstrate the Need for Strategy, not Tactics, to Counter the iPhone.
The event starts at 10am Pacific, 1pm Eastern, 6pm UK and 7pm CET.
Here’s the list of sites with live coverage:
- This is my next / The Verge: Liveblog
(lots of great ex-Engadget folks) - Macworld / PC World: Liveblog
- Cnet: Liveblog
- Engadget: Liveblog
- Gizmodo: Liveblog
- Arstechnica: Liveblog
- Slashgear: Liveblog
- Guardian: Liveblog Link live from 30m before the start
- Zdnet: Liveblog
- gdgt: Liveblog (more ex-Engadget folks)
- Financial Times: Liveblog
After the event has finished, Apple will post a video of the presentation here: http://www.apple.com/apple-events/ and as a podcast on iTunes. Apple are not offering a public live video stream this year.
Update, my analysis of Apple’s announcements is here: iPhone 4S Is a Worldphone That’s Not, as Apple Positions to Counter Android
