Apple’s iCloud Enables A Post-PC World That Will Boost iPad & iPhone Sales
With the launch of the 2011 iPhone models, Apple will also launch iCloud, a new online services play that replaces MobileMe. This is a part of the iOS5 software that will be available for free to existing iOS devices and will ship as standard on new iPhones, iPads and iPod Touch’s.
This is a core part of Apple’s near term strategy to drive greater device sales — iPhone, iPad, iPod Touch and Mac — as Apple builds a post-PC world. Over the long haul iCloud will also help Apple’s content and services revenues but that won’t be its most important initial impact.
Apple still makes the vast bulk of its revenues from hardware sales despite having by far the most successful app store, music download store and various other services initiatives. Example: In the first three years after the launch of the Apple App Store Apple generated $1.1bn in revenue from iOS apps (1). But this figure is dwarfed by their iOS device revenues of over $100bn in the same period (2). Apple has great margins on those hardware revenues too.
Because of that hardware model, Apple has enormous incentives to create new product features to drive device sales, even if that means offering those new features or services for free. Apple can be disruptive with “free” offerings too. The “contagion of free” business models are not just the preserve of Google and Valley-based VC-funded startups.
This is the cloud the way it should be: automatic and effortless. iCloud is seamlessly integrated into your apps, so you can access your content on all your devices. And it’s free with iOS 5. — Apple marketing, October, 2011
Those devices sales give Apple a massive incentive to package its cloud services for free. In so doing, Apple undermines those that have cloud-based services as their core business. This includes Google. Although Google charges for few cloud services — the main exception being Google Apps for businesses — it still generates direct advertising revenues across all of its cloud services such as Gmail. So, if people choose to use Apple’s services instead of Google it still hurts Google’s bottom line.
iCloud supports Apple’s desire to sell more devices by helping two overlapping groups of consumers:
Apple’s Metrics Demonstrate the Need for Strategy, not Tactics, to Counter the iPhone
Next week Apple will announce new iPhones. There will be a backlash. There will be praise. Much of significance will be lost in the noise.
Instead, Apple’s metrics should focus rivals’ attention on the importance of multi-year strategies.
Competitors are forever seeking to emulate Apple. But too many deploy me-too tactics, rather than following a consistent and sustained long term strategy:
- HP fired its CEO under a year after appointment. There’s only time to kill things, not build them, in such a short period.
- Nokia dithered on MeeGo. In 2009, Nokia partnered with Intel on MeeGo, then killed MeeGo just a year later, to focus on Microsoft Windows Phone instead.
- Samsung’s Galaxy S of 2010 resembles the Apple’s old iPhone 3GS of 2009, not the designed-from-scratch iPhone 4 that the S actually competed against at the time the S arrived in the market.
Part of the problem is that Apple keeps its strategy to itself: New products seem to appear out of Apple’s magic hat fully-formed at high profile launch events as if they’ve been born an adult, with no incubation or nurturing period. There are rarely betas or pre-announcements months ahead of availability, unlike the perpetually beta services of others. But we know Apple takes years to create these products. The iPad’s origins pre-date the iPhone and go back to around 2004 — six years before it launched — while serious development began in 2007, again years before competitors had anything publicly available that they could copy.
By mistaking tactics for strategy Apple’s many competitors are doomed to poor results. The time needed to build products as deeply and well designed as Apple’s can’t be completed overnight. Software design takes years to do. The supplier relationships that Apple is securing are long term. The investment that Apple is placing in key component design — moving into chip design with the A4 and A5 — is not something that any company could achieve without clear multi-year strategy.
Despite the Android evangelists and Apple naysayers, Apple’s metrics are nothing short of outstanding:
Kindle Fire-bug Tablet Forecast Caution
Apologies again for the title pun.
Now the Amazon Kindle Fire tablet is official, everyone has set out their view of how well it will do. Almost all of these forecasts are positive.
But all of this analysis has been based on a tiny little assumption: That the product works as described, is quick, elegant and bug free. Ok, it’s not such a small assumption. It’s massive.
At the event yesterday, Amazon controlled access to the Fire. Attendees were not able to test it out free form. Amazon staff showed it, yes, but they also pressed the buttons, browsed the web, scrolled the screen, and played the music and videos. PC World columnist Harry McCracken tweeted about Amazon’s demo control first. Now, Engadget reports it wasn’t able to go hands-on, as do Venturebeat, Gizmodo, and This is my Next and others. Kindle Fire tablet demo videos from the event all have in common Amazon staff holding the Fire, they look similar: see Techcrunch ; WSJ etc. etc.
This lack of access to the Fire this close to launch is suspicious.
By not allowing attendees to try it, Amazon is implying that the current Kindle Fire software is sluggish, buggy, or not yet fully implemented. The last time I saw a tablet shown in this way was behind closed doors at HP’s Mobile World Congress booth back in February. There they showed me the Touchpad but wouldn’t let me use its apps myself. As history records, the Touchpad launch wasn’t smooth. Early buyers complained the software was sluggish and HP killed the whole Touchpad line just 48 days post launch.
Kindle Fire Will Spontaneously Combust Traditional Media Business Models
I speculated ahead of Amazon’s launch that the Kindle tablet should be called the Kindle 451, from the Bradbury book where the temperature of 451F is that which causes book paper to spontaneously ignite. I was wrong. Kindle Fire is the better name as the Fire will burn so varied a selection of physical media that no single named temperature could describe its impact.
This is the first true media tablet, as I predicted it would be. With the Kindle Fire, Amazon is making a play for movies, TV, music, magazines, apps, games as well as books.
The Kindle Fire is the first tablet that has its whole design optimized for content consumption. There’s no extraneous features. No camera. No aspirations to replace a notebook PC.
While Apple, Google and Microsoft aim to build tablets and smartphones that drive a post-PC world, Amazon is taking ownership of digital media. And, as digital media will become all media, by implication Amazon is now becoming the leading player in media as a whole. It’s impossible to assess the prospects for the Kindle devices without also assessing the potential for the total digital media market.
Yet despite the Kindle Fire’s impressive hardware the price is extremely aggressive at just $199, a fraction of the price of Apple’s iPad. Until the component breakdowns have been completed we can’t be sure… and I’m writing this minutes after the end of the launch event… But I strongly suspect that Amazon has only achieved that price due to its expectation of strong sales for Amazon’s content services, ie an effective content subsidy again as I predicted would happen.
Where to follow the Amazon tablet event live
The sites below will be providing live coverage of the Amazon announcements today, where Amazon’s first tablet will likely be unveiled.
I’ll be analyzing the news live on twitter, follow me here @ianfogg42 or read now my preview of what potential tablet features to watch out for and what the impact will be of each: Amazon’s Kindle Tablet Will Be The First True Media Tablet .
The event starts at 7am Pacific, 10am Eastern, 3pm UK and 4pm CET.
- This is my next, soon to be The Verge: Liveblog
(lots of great ex-Engadget folks) - PC World / Technologizer: Liveblog
- Cnet: Liveblog
- Engadget: Liveblog
- Gizmodo: Liveblog
- Arstechnica: Liveblog
- Boy Genius Report: Liveblog (will work later today in time for the event)
- Byte / Information Week: Liveblog (page not yet live)
- intomobile: Coverage here (they’re attending but not sure if this will be a liveblog)
- Reuters: Liveblog
Amazon’s Kindle Tablet Will Be The First True Media Tablet
[Updated after the Kindle Fire launch event: I've noted what happened in italics. I've not made any other edits.]
Tomorrow Amazon holds a major launch event and will likely unveil its first tablet, according to Techcrunch named the Kindle Fire.
To date, everyone bar Apple has failed with tablet launches. If Amazon mimics Apple then its tablet will fail too. Apple has too many economies of scale, industrial design expertise and supplier relationships for a retail-centric company like Amazon to emulate. Especially, if the Amazon tablet has taken a fast route to market by using the same ODM hardware manufacturer as RIM .
To succeed, Amazon must, and I’m sure will, take a different approach. The success of the Kindle shows Amazon is prepared to think differently from others and to disrupt its own products — in the Kindle’s case to disrupt the cash cow of print book sales — in order to be innovative and seize early advantage in digital markets. If Amazon’s hardware is undifferentiated and virtually the same as RIM’s PlayBook then Amazon has to differentiate elsewhere with content, experience and business models. Otherwise it will suffer the same fate as RIM’s PlayBook.
Amazon cares little about the post-PC world, unlike Apple and Microsoft who are playing that different game. Instead, Amazon is driven by a post disc and post print world where all media will be digital.
Amazon will build a true media tablet. The first true media tablet. The Kindle tablet will focus on the future of all media — TV, movies, music, books, magazines — to enable Amazon to become the dominant digital media retailer. That is Amazon’s ambition.
On that basis, here are the areas to watch for in Amazon’s tablet product launch and what impact each item will have on the market:
- The extent to which the Kindle tablet’s business model is content-subsidized. Few devices enjoy a lower up front price because of content subsidy. It’s hard to do. Games consoles are the obvious exception but even in that market history is awash with console failures. Nintendo’s 3DS is the most recent struggler. Outside of games almost all devices are priced without a content subsidy. Even Apple sees content revenues as icing rather than a key profit centre that would warrant a lower up front price for iPads or iPhones. Carriers too subsidise iPhones based on communication revenues, not media. Arguably, only Amazon’s own Kindle eReader has extended a content-led device sales model outside of the games market. If Amazon offers its tablet for a very low price, based on expectations of future content sales, then Amazon will successfully disrupt the market and enjoy very significant sales. If the price is tied to hardware costs, then the price will be less aggressive and Amazon’s tablet will compete at a similar price to rivals and consumers will judge it based on the overall product package.
Update post Fire launch event: Price is just $199 which given the component quality (IPS color screen; dual core processor; same broad hardware as the much more expensive PlayBook etc.) looks to have been set based on expectation of future Amazon content sales. Read the rest of this entry »
Multiple Personalities: The Impact of Windows 8 on Windows Phone Mango
This week the first significant feature update to Windows Phone 7 should roll out to users’ phones. Or perhaps it will be next week, Microsoft is being vague. Either way, this should be a reason for Microsoft to market the hell out of their innovative and worthy smartphones. Instead, the world is being distracted by Windows 8 and competitor activity, rather than the update variously called Mango or version 7.5. Microsoft is at risk of presenting multiple personalities to the world.
“We haven’t sold quite as many as I would have liked in the first year… I’m not saying I love where we are but I am very optimistic on where we can be. We’ve just got to kick this thing to the next level.” Steve Ballmer, Microsoft CEO, at Microsoft’s financial analyst meeting, September 14, 2011.
To date, Windows Phone hasn’t sold as well as Microsoft hoped and wanted. Microsoft really needs Mango to succeed or Windows Phone 7 may itself stagnate and eventually die, despite its highly differentiated social network integration, hubs, and Metro user interface (UI).
The use by Windows 8 of the same Metro interface pioneered on Windows Phone 7 should boost adoption of Microsoft’s smartphones. By confirming Microsoft backing for the Metro UI it should help app developers to create apps for both Windows 8 and Windows Phone. Having more quality apps should then boost Windows Phone sales. It’s the classic virtuous circle.
And Windows Phone really needs more apps, and more quality apps too: as of September 2011 there are just over 32,000 apps available compared with over 425,000 for Apple’s iOS; over 250,000 for Android; even the iPad has over 90,000 apps in Apple’s App Store.
This virtuous circle won’t happen unless Microsoft amends its strategy.
